What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 71.2%
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8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ago 26, 08:29 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Regole
This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.
- This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.
- Signatory & Conflict Scope
- Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both.
- Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 71% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.