US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026?
IAOne-OffUS PoliticsTecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 92.9%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto25 ago 25, 21:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
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KalshiRegole
Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry
- I'm not entirely sure how to resolve complex mechanisms of ownership - I wouldn't count eg: the govt as an LP to a fund owning this share.
- Ask a question, or suggest a mechanism if you're unsure of resolution.
- This would definitely resolve YES if an Intel-style equity-for-subsidy deal happens leading to the federal govt owning >5%.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026??
- US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry