US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026?
IAOne-OffPolitica USATecnologia2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 23:51 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 92%
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto25 ago 25, 21:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry
- I'm not entirely sure how to resolve complex mechanisms of ownership - I wouldn't count eg: the govt as an LP to a fund owning this share.
- Ask a question, or suggest a mechanism if you're unsure of resolution.
- This would definitely resolve YES if an Intel-style equity-for-subsidy deal happens leading to the federal govt owning >5%.