Quali sono le probabilità attuali per There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040?

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 51.2% al 31 ottobre 2026.

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 51.2%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

30 dic 22, 19:25 UTC1 gen 40, 19:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN

Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
Moscow/the capital
Control of the military
The cultural core
If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.