third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
Corporate ActionsIAOne-OffTecnologia9mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto23 mag 26, 16:58 UTC1 lug 27, 16:55 UTC
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work in progress, will we see substantial charitable giving from the EA’s due to the ai labs IPOing?
- could resolve to my opinion or some tens of billions donated within the first year after both labs have ipo’d.
- reference: https://open.substack.com/pub/nanransohoff/p/the-third-wave-of-american-philanthropy?r=2jhh1&utm_medium=ios
- Update 2026-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):
- New commitments/pledges that are hard to wiggle out of (not just actual grants) can count as evidence for YES resolution, or could at least contribute to a percentage resolution.
- Political donations may count if they are primarily directed towards candidates that are running on charitable causes (e.g., animal welfare, AI safety)
Mercati aperti
Corporate Actions
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 48,8K €
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 182,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 38,9K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-5.0pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.8pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.5pt5.8%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.2pt20.9%
- $2.5–$2.75T+7.5pt19.1%
- $1.75–$2.0T-7.0pt18.1%
+7 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 70% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO??
- third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 luglio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: work in progress, will we see substantial charitable giving from the EA’s due to the ai labs IPOing?