Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.2%
Previsori
562
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
11 giu 25, 05:06 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?
Manifold MarketsThe first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
- Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
- To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
- No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
- No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
- Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
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- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Tesla avrà più corse completamente autonome di Waymo nel 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Tesla avrà più corse completamente autonome di Waymo nel 2026??
- Tesla avrà più corse completamente autonome di Waymo nel 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Tesla avrà più corse completamente autonome di Waymo nel 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!