Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 69%
Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto26 mar 23, 01:08 UTC1 gen 39, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
Manifold MarketsNumber of Honey Deuces sold at the US Open
KalshiWill the average car sold in the US in 2030 be smaller than the average car sold (in the US) in 2025
Manifold MarketsWill the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
- Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
- (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)