Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 71.8%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto26 ago 25, 23:42 UTC1 gen 29, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce still together on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift endorse the Democratic candidate again in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift win the 2028 presidential election?
Manifold MarketsTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
PolymarketTaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (October 19, 2026 - October 25, 2026)
KalshiRegole
Having a child counts, as does announcing a miscarriage.
- Leaks and rumors don't count, but it's still an announcement even if it's not a surprise.
- Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Announcing a pregnancy via surrogacy does NOT count for resolution.