Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale4h - 5h 20.4%In testa tra 15 esiti
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ago 25, 23:09 UTC31 ott 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext DeepSeek Pro released by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first DeepSeek V4 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- V4 Pro variants (Preview, GA) count for the purpose of this market.
- V3 / R1 or earlier would not count.
- Later DeepSeek models would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
