Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 87.4%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 00:52 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PredictItWhat will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
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KalshiWhen will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
KalshiWill Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
KalshiRegole
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.