Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 90%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 00:52 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Manifold MarketsWhat cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
KalshiAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWill Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by which date?
PolymarketWill Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
KalshiRegole
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7K €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3K €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026??
- No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.