Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 50%
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6
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto7 set 26, 14:36 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBlack hole spin-flip a cause of X-shaped radio galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegole
The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.
- Its light traveled 13.5 billion years to reach us, and is now 33.8 billion light years away (space expands)
- It appears as it was 280 million years after the big bang
- Resolves YES if a galaxy with a spectroscopic redshift above 14.44 is reported before Jan 1, 2028.
- Resolution follows the List of the most distant astronomical objects - Wikipedia - confirmed objects section.
- If that entry shows z>14.44 and cites a published paper or preprint, this resolves YES.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume totale
- 153,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 409,9K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 50% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027?
- New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.