Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNobody 89.8%In testa tra 18 esiti
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ago 25, 21:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
If LWCW 2026 does not take place this market resolves as N/A.
- The market will resolve to which person does in fact give the keynote, not only who is announced as doing so.
- This may matter if someone has to cancel last minute.
- Giving the keynote remotely or as a video recording counts.
- Zvi house rules apply.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets quota Nobody al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS] dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If LWCW 2026 does not take place this market resolves as N/A.