Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 90.6%
Previsori
52
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 23 minuti fa
5 giu 24, 00:43 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Largest reported pay-package offered to an AI researcher before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
- I will take "the work of an AI research/engineer" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027.
- Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense.
- I will use my best judgement.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027??
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states: