Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 93.9%
Previsori
54
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto5 giu 24, 00:43 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Largest reported pay-package offered to an AI researcher before 2027?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
- I will take "the work of an AI research/engineer" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027.
- Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense.
- I will use my best judgement.
