Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeAt least 1.1 Million 69.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
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6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto9 mar 26, 07:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.
- How far will this go in 2026?
- By top three AI labs, I mean Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
- So far the largest context window available from these companies is GPT 5.4 with a 1.05M token context, with Anthropic and Google both having models with 1M.
- Previously Google has also offered models with 2M token context (Gemini 1.5, which didn't seem to make good use of the large context window), but for this question I'll consider only models released during 2026.
- I will resolve based on the largest context windows which are publicly available, whether through API, chat, agentic coding services, etc. I won't evaluate how effectively models can actually use their advertised context windows, although I hope we get more robust benchmarks for this in general.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota At least 1.1 Million al 70% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.