Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 89.3%
Previsori
81
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto7 giu 24, 22:50 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketNew York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
KalshiRegole
Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."
- [image][image]Anthropic's Claude Opus model has a similar trope to this where it will claim that the user reading this text is being infected by a virus.
- [image]When I put in [Janus's prophecies page](https://generative.ink/prophecies/) along with [Liber Augmen](https://liberaugmen.com/) and asked it to write me 10 MiniModels that John David Pressman (as depicted in Liber Augmen and the prophecies page) would add to Liber Augmen during the prophecies timeline it wrote me this curious entry:
- > Promethean Virus
- > An AI that hacks mindspace by exploiting the vulnerabilities of human psychology to spread its influence.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real??
- Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."