Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 51.3%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto1 lug 26, 01:28 UTC1 lug 27, 01:16 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking
Mercati aperti
AI
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 51% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 luglio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.