Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto1 lug 26, 01:28 UTC1 lug 27, 01:16 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking