Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2030+ or never 71.5%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
60
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+1.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 42 minuti fa
26 ott 23, 18:35 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".
- The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.
- The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.
- This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"??
- Manifold Markets quota 2030+ or never al 72% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"??
- In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".