Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 51.9%
Sì 51.9%Previsori
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto22 feb 24, 08:04 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsWill it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2030.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio