Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 55%
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo22 feb 24, 08:04 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2030.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 55% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a