Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
2026 91%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
143
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto27 mag 24, 16:25 UTC1 gen 31, 22:59 UTC
Trend
0.4%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?
Manifold MarketsWill Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028
Manifold MarketsTesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Condition for resolving this market:
- At least 10000 commercial rides have happened
- Tesla's robotaxi is available to the general public in the US.
- So not behind a waitlist.
- The robotaxis are fully driverless and FSD.
- The type of car doesn’t matter nor if it has a steering wheel.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US??
- In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Condition for resolving this market: