In what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?
InflazioneOne-OffEconomiaValuteCina
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2035-2039 22.3%In testa tra 5 esiti
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3
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto9 giu 25, 00:19 UTC31 dic 00, 23:59 UTC
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China already became the world's largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis in 2016, according to both the World Bank and IMF estimates, even though the United States still leads when measured at market exchange rates.
- As of 2024, China's nominal GDP is about 73 % of the U.S. level ($18.3 tn vs $25.0 tn in 2022 IMF data) and the gap has been narrowing roughly 1-2 percentage points per year.
- Whether-and when-China overtakes the U.S. in nominal terms hinges on factors such as:
- real growth differentials,
- inflation and deflation trends,
- RMB-USD exchange-rate movements, and
