In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
One-OffGeopolitica1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 93%
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13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto1 feb 23, 18:49 UTC2 feb 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
- The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*.
- I find this rather hard to believe.
- What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
- I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
- * More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday??
- In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock