In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022??

Manifold Markets quota No al 85.5% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022??

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 gennaio 2028.

Come viene liquidato In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image]https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1620617483358212098?t=2bv5RVQsLz1S-e8KNB25tw&s=09

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-1.3pt91.8%
• Anthropic+0.1pt8.2%
• Alibaba0%

+18 altri esiti

Volume totale

3,2 Mln €

Volume 24h

92,5K €

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+8.5pt56.7%
• Gemini-4.2pt33.4%
• ChatGPT-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt28.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt19.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.0pt19.6%

+7 altri esiti

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+5.0pt55%
• Google-4.0pt37%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6%

+12 altri esiti

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• OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?