If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Politica USAOne-OffCriminalità e giustizia3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 17:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 71.7%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto15 ago 23, 15:53 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketJack Doherty Prison Time?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
- Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
- Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
- This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
