If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 23 minuti fa
7 apr 26, 17:28 UTC7 apr 31, 17:27 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome, or if AI has an ok outcome because of a pause, human enhancement, a non-routine effort prioritizing alignment as a blocker on capabilities rather than happening alongside capabilities as a second priority, or some non-AI route to a transhumanist future.
- For example, if OpenAI or Anthropic's strategy worked, this market would not resolve N/A; they both have a "safety team" in a capabilities org, rather than a capabilities team in an alignment org, and are not pursuing alternate paths for a transhumanist future.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if alignment is easy, and NO otherwise. "Alignment is easy" means 6 or easier on the ten levels of alignment difficulty.
