If AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSuperintelligent 81%In testa tra 3 esiti
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Aggiornato 56 minuti fa
In ritardo26 feb 26, 16:34 UTC31 dic 00, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves N/A if AI going into the Future is built on deep learning, or a son-of-deep-learning that is not at all under human control, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI.
- Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
- An okay outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A new paradigm is any paradigm that is not deep learning.
- This includes currently known paradigms; being powerful enough to cause an okay outcome is a novel
