Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 53.5%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo5 ott 25, 18:48 UTC11 gen 70, 18:36 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).
- Resolves "the named outcome" if the marriage breaks up and there is any hint of acrimony.
- (I will be fairly generous in what qualifies for this, since the public view will be heavily filtered.
- If there aren't public indications that they're still friendly, it's probably gone down in flames.
- As a point of reference, the Joe Alwyn breakup would qualify as going down in flames.)
- Resolves "the named outcome" upon credible reporting that they have split before getting married (regardless of whether they later get back together).
Mercati aperti
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 319,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 98K €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 altri esiti
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 80K €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 130,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3K €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4 Mln €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)?
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)?
- How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) dovrebbe risolversi il 11 gennaio 2070.
- Come viene liquidato How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).