Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2027-01-01 78.5%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date
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Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiPrison Break: New season release date
KalshiA Knight of the Seven Kingdoms Season 2: Release Date
KalshiRegole
The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GLM 5.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2027-01-01 al 79% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date?
- GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.