Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 57.4%
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto14 apr 26, 18:52 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?
Manifold MarketsAny frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?
- Will a Frontier AI Model Achieve a 50% pass@1 Success Rate on Autonomous Replication Benchmarks by December 2027?
- Background Autonomous replication—the capability of an AI system to acquire resources, copy its own weights, and persist across compute environments—is a critical safety threshold.
- Standardized benchmarks to measure these risks include METR's 'Rogue Replication' tasks and the UK AI Safety Institute's (AISI) 'RepliBench'.
- As of April 2026, performance on these benchmarks has progressed rapidly.
- In May 2025, the UK AISI reported that Claude 3.7 Sonnet achieved a pass@10 success rate of over 50% on 15 out of 20 task families [92e1f4].
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27??
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?