🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)
IAOne-Off
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President with Green Eyes elected 78.2%In testa tra 100 esiti
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207
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Obsoleto2 gen 24, 01:23 UTC2 gen 20, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
- 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
- 2nd event: 2% (happens next)
- 100th event: 100% (happens latest)
- If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.
- If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)?
- Manifold Markets quota President with Green Eyes elected al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)?
- 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE) dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2120.
- Come viene liquidato 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: