Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 77.3%
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto11 dic 22, 03:12 UTC1 gen 00, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRegole
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming: