Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
One-OffMeteo
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 66.1%
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29
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto11 dic 22, 03:12 UTC1 gen 00, 05:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
