Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.5%
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28
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 57 minuti fa
In ritardo5 mar 24, 12:47 UTC1 lug 28, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
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PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.