Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 31 ott 2026, 17:25 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 70%
Previsori
89
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto7 giu 26, 04:33 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028
Manifold Marketscan you just balenciaga it? Before 2027
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KalshiRegole
On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.
- If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes.
- Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed.
- Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be.
- Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK.
- The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
