Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%In testa tra 7 esiti
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto21 feb 24, 04:36 UTC2 gen 36, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.
- Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
- GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
- This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
- I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
- (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)