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  3. By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

IATecnologiaOne-Off9a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01 0%
In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori

26

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 giorni fa

Obsoleto
21 feb 24, 4:362 gen 36, 7:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01
0%
Before 2025-01-01
Before 2025-01-01
0%

Esito scelto

Before 2027-01-0192%

Regole

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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Attivi in questi argomenti

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Notizie Correlate

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Regole

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)