By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
IA3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale< 0.05x 35.4%In testa tra 6 esiti
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto2 feb 26, 01:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Intelligence bar
- "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better
- Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.
- Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.
- At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.
- E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- Manifold Markets quota < 0.05x al 35% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Intelligence bar