By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)
InflazioneOne-OffPolitica commercialePolitica10aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale$1,000/year 9%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
1
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto30 set 26, 00:08 UTC1 gen 37, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Each answer resolves independently.
- It resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), the US enacts a federal universal cash payment, as defined below, of at least that amount per adult per year in 2026 dollars.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- A law that clears a higher threshold also clears every lower one, so the answers should be non-increasing from top to bottom.
- Arbitrage welcome.
- The $1,000 rung would catch a recurring universal "dividend" (tariff, carbon, AI, sovereign-wealth-fund) if it's legislated as a lasting program.
