Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 68%
Previsori
254
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto5 apr 23, 04:25 UTC1 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRegole
Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 68% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population??
- By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this