Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 95.3%
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Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
25 mag 24, 22:11 UTC2 gen 35, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.
- I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.
- I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.
- The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 44,4K €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 95% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.