Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?
US PoliticsOne-OffPolitica1gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.4%
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
4 nov 25, 13:59 UTC10 set 26, 12:18 UTC
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Will another influencer be killed in a politically motivated attack by Sept 10. 2026?
- To be considered an influencer, for the purposes of this market, they have to be primarily known as a media pundit or a social media influencer/content creator and/or their political power must primarily derive from their position as an influencer, not from an elected seat, family or an influential career in politics.
- A politically active current or former state-, or higher level politician (i.e. Trump, Obama, Newsom, AOC etc.), would be highly unlikely to qualify, even if they otherwise did fulfill all the requirements below.
- Also unlikely to qualify would be a famous person mostly known for their work portfolio outside of their social media influence (i.e. Taylor Swift, Gal Gadot etc.) even if they were politically outspoken and specifically targeted for that reason.
- To be considered a politically motivated murder, the police reports and/or the media consensus has to show that the person was murdered specifically due to their political views/influence.
- Rough figures for the influencer notability requirement:
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's??
- Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's? dovrebbe risolversi il 10 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will another influencer be killed in a politically motivated attack by Sept 10. 2026?