Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 23 ott 2026, 21:22 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 87.8%
Previsori
83
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto10 nov 25, 12:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
AI bubble burst by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill the AI bubble burst by which date?
FutuurRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a significant decline in AI-related asset valuations occurs during 2026, defined as:
- A sustained 20%+ decline from peak valuations in the "Magnificent Seven" AI stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Tesla) during any consecutive 3-month period in 2026, OR
- A 15%+ decline in the Nasdaq-100 index during any consecutive 3-month period in 2026 that is explicitly attributed by major financial media (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, WSJ) to an "AI bubble burst" or similar characterization
- Resolution sources: S&P 500 historical data, Nasdaq-100 data, major financial news outlets
- The market resolves NO if 2026 concludes without meeting these criteria.
