Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: No (97.4%)
Risolto: 11 ott 2026, 19:33
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 6 ott 2026, 17:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.
- Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/.
- Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it.
- Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.
- Resolves to NO if this does not occur.
- (Identical market to: source market)
