Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGeorge Ariyoshi 100%In testa tra 28 esiti
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo24 dic 25, 11:02 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per (Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota George Ariyoshi al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve (Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026??
- (Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato (Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.