Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79%
Previsori
51
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo6 gen 26, 22:35 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/18 - 10/24)
KalshiTrump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump’s executive order 14409 for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41193)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if the United States federal government enacts a law or executive order, after December 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, which introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models.
- For purposes of this question, an “AI safety requirement” is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system’s general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls.
- Such requirements count only if they are imposed on the basis of the model’s general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model), rather than on the basis of a specific application, audience, or content category.
- They do not include requirements about privacy, copyright, or federal procurement.