Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 67%
Previsori
73
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto2 feb 24, 05:24 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2028.
- Has to be unaided by other tech.
- Could be an accident, ie the falling on the person.
- Must be a humanoid.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 67% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028?
- A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2028.