KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 91%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
375,8 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
12 ago 26, 00:46 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Regole
If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains.
- Legislation qualifies if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, whether through a rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, a change in applicable thresholds, a change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism.
- Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer’s overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, do not qualify.
- A qualifying change may be temporary and need not take effect before the specified deadline, provided the legislation becomes law within the specified time period.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 12,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 90,5K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4,8 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 877K €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026??
- Kalshi quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026??
- Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.