Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
13.0 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffElezioneAmerica Latina1a
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptQualità del mercato
67 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,3K €
Open interest
2,6K €
Open interest medioBid / Ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
5 ott 26, 21:00 UTC25 ott 27, 14:00 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRegole
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Regole per ogni esito
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.