FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attuale
No 93%
No 93%Qualità del mercato
31 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
264,3 €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
11
Commenti
1
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
PolymarketWill Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for president in 2028?
KalshiWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWhich of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketRegole
This market aims to predict whether Donald Trump will officially file to run for a third presidential campaign in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. "File to run for President" is defined as Trump formally filing candidacy paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and publicly declaring his intention to run, accompanied by active campaign efforts such as fundraising, organizing campaign events, or participating in primary debates.
- If no such announcement and filing occurs before the FEC's candidacy deadline, it will resolve as "No".
- If Trump indicates interest in running but does not take the necessary legal steps to become an official candidate, the market will resolve as "No." Additionally, since a third presidential term is unconstitutional under the 22nd Amendment, any attempt to challenge the rule—such as calling for its repeal or contesting its validity—will not be enough for a "Yes" resolution unless he successfully files as a candidate with the FEC.
- If Trump files to run but is later ruled ineligible, the market will still resolve as "Yes" based on the filing alone.
- Verification will rely on official filings with the FEC, public statements made by Trump himself, or announcements from campaign representatives.
- Reports from reputable news sources may also be used for confirmation.
