Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72.7%
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68
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto22 ott 23, 10:02 UTC9 nov 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRegole
Updated description:
- My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.
- I propose that this resolve Yes if either:
- He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it
- He files an FEC Form 2
- Any objections or proposed other criteria?
