Manifold Markets: Mercati Risolti nel 2025

I mercati predittivi di Manifold Markets risolti nel corso del 2025, dai più recenti, con l'esito vincente di ciascuno.

125 mercati risolti

• Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 31 dic 2025

• Will Anthony Albanese be a popular prime minister at the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 31 dic 2025

• BTC Puzzle 71 solved in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 31 dic 2025

• Will the academic level of the average French student rise by 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 31 dic 2025

• Will Riley+Tundar beat Ice+Marcus?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 30 dic 2025

• Will Spinn+Shogun beat Tundar+Meph

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 29 dic 2025

• New Melee major winner in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 29 dic 2025

• test

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 27 dic 2025

• I will become fluent in toki pona by the end of 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 22 dic 2025

• Who will win Antisemite of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Tucker Carlson · Risolto 21 dic 2025

• 5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 15 dic 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Comayagua en 2025?/ Winning party of Comayagua's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Partido Liberal · Risolto 13 dic 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Choluteca en 2025?/ Winning party of Choluteca's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Partido Nacional · Risolto 13 dic 2025

• Greenland becomes a US state by December 31st 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 10 dic 2025

• CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 9 dic 2025

• WW3 starts before GTA 6?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 9 dic 2025

• ARC-AGI-2 prize winning score >=50% in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 5 dic 2025

• Who will win the Zilo vs Aimbot debate? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174825167197843466/1444409185088438425/i

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Zilo · Risolto 3 dic 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 dic 2025

• Who will win the Aimbot - Zilo debate?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Zilo · Risolto 30 nov 2025

• Who will win Game of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 · Risolto 25 nov 2025

• GOOGL stock price higher than GOOG by 1/1/2026?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 24 nov 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Women's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: NC State · Risolto 22 nov 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Men's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Oklahoma State · Risolto 22 nov 2025

• Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 19 nov 2025

• Will Gemini 3.0 Pro outperform Gemini 2.5 Pro on the LMArena (Without Style Control)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 18 nov 2025

• Will Claude AI experience no partial or major outage in the next 7 days, according to its official status page?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 18 nov 2025

• How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: 7 - 29 nights (<1 month) · Risolto 10 nov 2025

• Will anyone get a perfect score at BMT 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 9 nov 2025

• Will Devin win OHMIO?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 9 nov 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of October 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 3 nov 2025

• Trump approval rating 43.1% or higher on November 1st?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 2 nov 2025

• An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 1 nov 2025

• ¿Quien va a ganar la mesa de hoy?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Chamz · Risolto 30 ott 2025

• Will Coco venture out from under the furniture

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 21 ott 2025

• Lucas farà la tripletta pre partenza?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 16 ott 2025

• X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 15 ott 2025

• Tesla reports >465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 12 ott 2025

• David moves back to the Bay by October?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 5 ott 2025

• DingDingDing Casino announces a plan to resume operations by June 30, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 2 ott 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of September 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 ott 2025

• [MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 1 ott 2025

• Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 29 set 2025

• Boca win the libertadores 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 26 set 2025

• Will Substack launch an ad network in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 18 set 2025

• Will Nippon Steel’s deal to acquire U.S. Steel gain all required regulatory approvals?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 16 set 2025

• Kid heaves his lunch this week?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 14 set 2025

• Will macOS 16 drop support for intel based Mac’s?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 10 set 2025

• Will I fully clean my room before next Monday

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 9 set 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 set 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 LIV Golf Team Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Legion XIII · Risolto 24 ago 2025

• Will Putin visit the USA in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 16 ago 2025

• Will I get a job in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 8 ago 2025

• Will Trump broadly maintain the January 2025 AI diffusion export controls?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 2 ago 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of July 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 ago 2025

• [40k liquidity] 2025 Tour de France Winner?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Tadej Pogacar · Risolto 27 lug 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by 25th July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 25 lug 2025

• Gwern reveals the true meaning of Evangelion by December 31, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 24 lug 2025

• Kimi K2 rank 5 or better on LMArena?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 17 lug 2025

• Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 16 lug 2025

• Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 16 lug 2025

• GOLD (XAU/USD) closes above $3,330 this week?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 12 lug 2025

• Sanji dies in a fight?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 9 lug 2025

• In what month of year 2025 perl 5.42.0 will be released

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: 07 · Risolto 4 lug 2025

• Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 3 lug 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of June 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 lug 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 1 lug 2025

• Does this pumpkin drink vodka?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 30 giu 2025

• When will Elon Musk no longer play a significant role in the Trump Administration?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: 2025 · Risolto 30 giu 2025

• Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 29 giu 2025

• Are there more locks than keys in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 27 giu 2025

• Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 26 giu 2025

• Will I learn to orient using cardinal directions?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 19 giu 2025

• Will OpenAI release o3 pro mode this month?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 12 giu 2025

• During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: June · Risolto 9 giu 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of May 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 giu 2025

• Which actor will play the Sixteenth Doctor Who?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Billie Piper · Risolto 1 giu 2025

• Are there more chairs than tables?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 20 mag 2025

• Tits or Ass ?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Ass · Risolto 12 mag 2025

• Will I stick to my finals study routine from May 3 to May 11?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 9 mag 2025

• Who won HMIC 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: jatloe · Risolto 4 mag 2025

• Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Mark Carney · Risolto 4 mag 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 mag 2025

• Who will win the ACF Nationals Collegiate Quizbowl Championship 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Stanford · Risolto 20 apr 2025

• Will Mark Carney defeat Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming debates [based on odds change on Polymarket]?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 18 apr 2025

• When will Ksenia Karelina get out of prison?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: 2025 · Risolto 10 apr 2025

• My current relationship lasts >6 months (Oct 7th - April 7th)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 7 apr 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of March 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Google · Risolto 1 apr 2025

• Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 29 mar 2025

• will i win indiana mathcounts state comp

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 23 mar 2025

• will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 22 mar 2025

• Will any head of state/government publicly mention the Effective Altruism movement in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 22 feb 2025

• Will there be a new (and smart) anonymous model on lmarena on February 21st?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 22 feb 2025

• On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Hinge · Risolto 20 feb 2025

• Who will win melee singles at GENESIS X2?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Hungrybox 🍽️ · Risolto 17 feb 2025

• deleted

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 9 feb 2025

• How many of Trump’s nominees to head government agencies will be publicly accused of sex crimes by Inauguration Day?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: 3 · Risolto 20 gen 2025

• Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 19 gen 2025

• Will a production car achieve 0-60 mph in less than a second in 2024 or earlier?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 16 gen 2025

• La NASA confirmera t’elle la découverte extraterrestre avant 2025 ?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 10 gen 2025

• By 2025 will I firmly believe that one of the 2023 balloon shootdowns was staged by the Biden administration for PR purposes?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 4 gen 2025

• resolver

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: Yes · Risolto 3 gen 2025

• Gaat Frans Timmermans in 2024 de tweede kamer verlaten?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 3 gen 2025

• Will McDonald's open a location in Yerevan, Armenia in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 3 gen 2025

• Will Jstlk become an anti-fan in 2024

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 3 gen 2025

• On balance, has bitcoin resulted in more bad than good in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 2 gen 2025

• Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 2 gen 2025

• Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 1 gen 2025

• Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Vincitore: No · Risolto 1 gen 2025