Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 2026Politique américaine12mois
PredictItVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution non vérifiéesRetail prediction exchange
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 99%
Oui 99%Méthodologie
Retail prediction exchange
Type de question
-
Volume 24h
1,6 k €
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
30 oct. 26, 12:55 UTC3 nov. 27, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market shall resolve to Yes if the Democratic Party wins 240 or more seats in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections AND if the Democratic Party holds 52 or more seats in the United States Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.
For purposes of this market, the number of House seats won by the Democratic Party shall refer to the number of seats won by a U.S. House candidate with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party affiliation as Democratic on the day of the election.
The number of Senate seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
For purposes of this market, the number of House seats won by the Democratic Party shall refer to the number of seats won by a U.S. House candidate with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party affiliation as Democratic on the day of the election.
The number of Senate seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
- In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
For purposes of this market, a person switching parties on or after Election Day shall have no effect on resolution of the market. - Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
