KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 55%
Qualité du marché
81 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,3 k €
Liquidité
204,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
45.0% / 46.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
16 déc. 25, 16:00 UTC1 févr. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
- All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
- This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Référence CoinRithm est de 45%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 6 points de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm 45% · 2 plateformes · 6 pt d’ecart entre venues
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
- Gavin Newsom16%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193,6 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt91%
- Republican Party-0.8pt9%
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 506,4 k €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro+24.8pt58.8%
- Delcy Rodríguez-27.5pt40.2%
- No Head of State+0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Third Term99%
+34 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 843,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 408 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep60.2%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.6%
- Republicans sweep-1.6pt9.2%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Blue tsunami in 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 55% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Blue tsunami in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Blue tsunami in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Blue tsunami in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Blue tsunami in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.